A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
